What a week of games. A week of upsets, close upsets, and tight games. Both undefeated teams, Colts and Saints, almost get knocked off. The Broncos and Cowboys weren't so lucky. The game of the week was in the AFC North, where the surprise team of 2009 clashed with the defending super bowl champions. The Bengals pulled out victories from this defensive battle, 18-12. With the scoring difference being a kick return for a TD, also the lone TD from a game of field goals. And how about the ending to that Patriots Colts game? What a comeback and what an ending! I won't get into it now, but I am strongly considering a second blog to talk about these games and the controversy that came of them. Now to the results from the week.
I picked nine of the fifteen games correctly. That's a 60% success rate.
The Coin picked eight of the fifteen games correctly. That's a 53% success rate.
About the same success I had from week nine, but the coin had a much better week. Jumping from a lowly 15% last week to a respectable 53% this week.
I picked ten of the fifteen games correctly with the spread. That's a 67% success rate.
The Coin picked nine of the fifteen games correctly with the spread. That's a 60% success rate.
Both me and the coin had a better week in the picks with the spread. Me a little more so than the coin, but both did well.
After two weeks of picks, things are close. Well when it comes to the spread. When picking with the spread, my season (two week) average comes to 57% success rate. With sixteen of the twenty eight games picked correctly. The coin, out of twenty eight games picked sixteen correct also. I am tied with the coin at 57%. Now when not using the spread, I dominated the coin. Thankfully. I have picked seventeen of twenty eight games right to just ten picked correctly by the coin. The sorry first week of picks from the coin have really hurt. Bringing its success rate down to a sorry 36%. It makes me feel good to be dominating the coin here with my 61%. Though the coin has matched me in picks with the spread. Pretty sad a coin is matching me in picks. But it's not over yet. I am still going to blow the coin out of the water.
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Season Results
Me: 17/28 (61%)
Coin: 10/28 (36%)
With Spread
Me: 16/28 (57%)
Coin: 16/28 (57%)
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Week 10 Picks
Week ten. Half way point. Now is where you can start to filter out the pretenders from the contenders. This is where I believe I have an edge over the coin. I know that the lowly Lions are going up against the powerful Vikings. Or the once "Greatest Show on Turf" faces the team that could adopt that title for the 09 season. This is the best intro I could come up with. Every other one I had was garbage or just rambling. I used my intro on the results post from last weeks games. So how about we get past this awkward intro and get right into the picks.
There were some tough games to pick this week. Once you get passed the few easy ones; Minnesota/Detroit, New Orleans/St Louis, Baltimore/Cleveland; it's a little tough to pick. A lot of middle of the road teams playing each other. Pretenders are Contenders aren't separated quite yet so a handful of teams have questions. Also some bottom of the barrel teams playing this week. For me, this is the week where the Cardinals got to prove they are the best team in the NFC West again. The Jets are going to be exposed as just another pretender. The "Sanchize" doesn't seem to play well in cold weather yet. He played his college career in always sunny and warm California. And even after the terribly disappointing game last week, I have a good feeling this week about the Packers. Even though I didn't pick them, hey it's a competition and maybe if they were given a little more in the spread I would take them, I think the pack could upset big D.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
My Pick: Chicago
My Pick w/Spread: Chicago
Coin Flip: Chicago
Favorite: San Francisco (-3.5)
New Orleans at St Louis Rams
My Pick: New Orleans
My Pick w/Spread: Orleans
Coin Flip: St Louis
Favorite: New Orleans (-13.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins
My Pick: Miami
My Pick w/Spread: Tampa Bay
Coin Flip: Miami
Favorite: Miami (-9.5)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
My Pick: Minnesota
My Pick w/Spread: Minnesota
Coin Flip: Detroit
Favorite: Minnesota (-16.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
My Pick: Jacksonville
My Pick w/Spread: Jacksonville
Coin Flip: Jacksonville
Favorite: New York (-6.5)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
My Pick: Tennessee
My Pick w/Spread: Tennessee
Coin Flip: Tennessee
Favorite: Tennessee (-6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
My Pick: Pittsburgh
My Pick w/Spread: Cincinnati
Coin Flip: Cincinnati
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins
My Pick: Denver
My Pick w/Spread: Denver
Coin Flip: Denver
Favorite: Denver (-4.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
My Pick: Atlanta
My Pick w/Spread: Atlanta
Coin Flip: Atlanta
Favorite: Atlanta (-1.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
My Pick: Kansas City
My Pick w/Spread: Kansas City
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Favorite: Raiders (-1.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers
My Pick: San Diego
My Pick w/Spread: San Diego
Coin Flip: San Diego
Favorite: San Diego (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
My Pick: Arizona
My Pick w/Spread: Arizona
Coin Flip: Seattle
Favorite: Arizona (-8.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
My Pick: Dallas
My Pick w/Spread: Dallas
Coin Flip: Green Bay
Favorite: Dallas (-2.5)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
My Pick: Patriots
My Pick w/Spread: Patriots
Coin Flip: New England
Favorite: Indianapolis (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
My Pick: Baltimore
My Pick w/Spread: Baltimore
Coin Flip: Baltimore
Favorite: Baltimore (-10.5)
Ok so it looked like the coin matched me on a lot of my picks. The only ones we really had different were the supposedly "blow outs" I'm calling. The coin picked Detroit, St Louis, and Green Bay all to upset this weekend. Who knows though. In the words of Chris Burman, "That's Why They Play the Game". No win is ever a gimme. Few weeks ago, the Raiders beat the Eagles.
There were some tough games to pick this week. Once you get passed the few easy ones; Minnesota/Detroit, New Orleans/St Louis, Baltimore/Cleveland; it's a little tough to pick. A lot of middle of the road teams playing each other. Pretenders are Contenders aren't separated quite yet so a handful of teams have questions. Also some bottom of the barrel teams playing this week. For me, this is the week where the Cardinals got to prove they are the best team in the NFC West again. The Jets are going to be exposed as just another pretender. The "Sanchize" doesn't seem to play well in cold weather yet. He played his college career in always sunny and warm California. And even after the terribly disappointing game last week, I have a good feeling this week about the Packers. Even though I didn't pick them, hey it's a competition and maybe if they were given a little more in the spread I would take them, I think the pack could upset big D.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
My Pick: Chicago
My Pick w/Spread: Chicago
Coin Flip: Chicago
Favorite: San Francisco (-3.5)
New Orleans at St Louis Rams
My Pick: New Orleans
My Pick w/Spread: Orleans
Coin Flip: St Louis
Favorite: New Orleans (-13.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins
My Pick: Miami
My Pick w/Spread: Tampa Bay
Coin Flip: Miami
Favorite: Miami (-9.5)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
My Pick: Minnesota
My Pick w/Spread: Minnesota
Coin Flip: Detroit
Favorite: Minnesota (-16.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
My Pick: Jacksonville
My Pick w/Spread: Jacksonville
Coin Flip: Jacksonville
Favorite: New York (-6.5)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
My Pick: Tennessee
My Pick w/Spread: Tennessee
Coin Flip: Tennessee
Favorite: Tennessee (-6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
My Pick: Pittsburgh
My Pick w/Spread: Cincinnati
Coin Flip: Cincinnati
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins
My Pick: Denver
My Pick w/Spread: Denver
Coin Flip: Denver
Favorite: Denver (-4.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
My Pick: Atlanta
My Pick w/Spread: Atlanta
Coin Flip: Atlanta
Favorite: Atlanta (-1.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
My Pick: Kansas City
My Pick w/Spread: Kansas City
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Favorite: Raiders (-1.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers
My Pick: San Diego
My Pick w/Spread: San Diego
Coin Flip: San Diego
Favorite: San Diego (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
My Pick: Arizona
My Pick w/Spread: Arizona
Coin Flip: Seattle
Favorite: Arizona (-8.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
My Pick: Dallas
My Pick w/Spread: Dallas
Coin Flip: Green Bay
Favorite: Dallas (-2.5)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
My Pick: Patriots
My Pick w/Spread: Patriots
Coin Flip: New England
Favorite: Indianapolis (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
My Pick: Baltimore
My Pick w/Spread: Baltimore
Coin Flip: Baltimore
Favorite: Baltimore (-10.5)
Ok so it looked like the coin matched me on a lot of my picks. The only ones we really had different were the supposedly "blow outs" I'm calling. The coin picked Detroit, St Louis, and Green Bay all to upset this weekend. Who knows though. In the words of Chris Burman, "That's Why They Play the Game". No win is ever a gimme. Few weeks ago, the Raiders beat the Eagles.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Week 9 Results
Let me start things off by saying I'm sorry. I was correct that I'd beat the coin, but I took it a little far. In laughing at the coin's pick of the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers I, in turn, jinxed the sad Packers. Pretty sad actually, losing to a winless team who started their rookie quarterback. And blew an eleven point lead in the 4th quarter. I may, and i stress the may, have jinxed the Packers but (Coach) Mike McCarthy deserves the blame. As much as I'd love to talk about the Packers problems, this is just the Man against Coin (or odds, if you want to be all technical). I am considering starting another blog to discuss my thoughts on the Packers, the NFL, and other sports. But that's not the task at hand right now. So lefts get down to business.
Like I mentioned right away in this blog entry, I was correct in stating I had this one in the bag this week. I didn't have an outstanding week in anyway. It was a decent week, for my picks without the spread atleast. I don't know what it is about picking with the spread, but it's just a little harder. Maybe you over think. But people with the spread generally have a lower pick percentage than they do with picks without the spread involved. This is where the coin may have an advantage. It doesn't think about the games like I have to. It just lands Heads (Home Team) or Tails (Away). Now to the results from week nine.
I picked eight of the thirteen games correctly. That's a 62% success rate.
The Coin picked two of the thirteen games correctly. That's a 15% success rate.
Looked pretty lowly for the coin, I know. But now look at the results from the picks with the spread.
I picked six of the thirteen games correctly with the spread. That's a 46% success rate.
The Coin picked seven of the thirteen games correctly with the spread. That's a 54% success rate.
I was feeling pretty good until I saw my results from the picks with the spread. Well, worse when I saw the coin beat me. But that's what Norman Chad had said on that podcast last week. That you could be better off flipping a coin when making picks. And you'd come out ahead or about the same as you would if you picked them yourself. Chad's picks he made for ESPN were done with the spread. That is why I made the late addition of it to my tests. I admit, I think he may be right as for the coin flip for picks with the spread. So far, it's proving true.
On a last note, it's that time of the year when NFL Network gets their game of the week. So starting this week, I'll have to be making my picks either late Wednesday night or sometime Thursday. Football Thursday to Monday. Sounds good, but when you don't get to see that Thursday night game it's almost like it could of just waited til Sunday. And then you got to check your fantasy football an extra two days before you're used to.
Like I mentioned right away in this blog entry, I was correct in stating I had this one in the bag this week. I didn't have an outstanding week in anyway. It was a decent week, for my picks without the spread atleast. I don't know what it is about picking with the spread, but it's just a little harder. Maybe you over think. But people with the spread generally have a lower pick percentage than they do with picks without the spread involved. This is where the coin may have an advantage. It doesn't think about the games like I have to. It just lands Heads (Home Team) or Tails (Away). Now to the results from week nine.
I picked eight of the thirteen games correctly. That's a 62% success rate.
The Coin picked two of the thirteen games correctly. That's a 15% success rate.
Looked pretty lowly for the coin, I know. But now look at the results from the picks with the spread.
I picked six of the thirteen games correctly with the spread. That's a 46% success rate.
The Coin picked seven of the thirteen games correctly with the spread. That's a 54% success rate.
I was feeling pretty good until I saw my results from the picks with the spread. Well, worse when I saw the coin beat me. But that's what Norman Chad had said on that podcast last week. That you could be better off flipping a coin when making picks. And you'd come out ahead or about the same as you would if you picked them yourself. Chad's picks he made for ESPN were done with the spread. That is why I made the late addition of it to my tests. I admit, I think he may be right as for the coin flip for picks with the spread. So far, it's proving true.
On a last note, it's that time of the year when NFL Network gets their game of the week. So starting this week, I'll have to be making my picks either late Wednesday night or sometime Thursday. Football Thursday to Monday. Sounds good, but when you don't get to see that Thursday night game it's almost like it could of just waited til Sunday. And then you got to check your fantasy football an extra two days before you're used to.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Week 9 Picks
I am a big fan of ESPN sports writer/columnist, Bill Simmons. Being of which, I listen to his podcast series, The B.S. Report. On the latest podcast, Bill had on Norman Chad. Norman had picked the weekly NFL games for ESPN for the past decade plus. He admitted recently, and mentioned on the podcast as well, that he had not even picked any of the games. He determined his pick by the flip of a coin. Also claiming he ended years with a winning record doing so. He claims your winning precentage would be about the same if not better by flipping a coin vs picking the games yourself. And I'm going to put that to the test. I wish I would of been able to start at the beginning of the season, that way the results would be more thorough.
I'll be comparing my picks against the picks made by the coin flip. I'll be doing this for the next nine weeks of the season. At the end, we'll see who picked better, me or the coin. Man vs Coin.
Though I can not pick through the first eight weeks of the year, I can go back and flip a coin and see if the coin would have picked correctly. I plan to do that in one of the next few blogs. As for now, I got to beat the coin. And here are our picks for the week, week nine.
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
My Pick: Atlanta
My Pick w/Spread: Atlanta
Coin Flip: Redskins
Favorite: Atlanta (-10.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
My Pick: Chicago
My Pick w/Spread: Arizona
Coin Flip: Chicago
Favorite: Chicago (-3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
My Pick: Baltimore
My Pick w/Spread: Baltimore
Coin Flip: Baltimore
Favorite: Baltimore (-2.5)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
My Pick: Indianapolis
My Pick w/Spread: Houston
Coin Flip: Houston
Favorite: Indianapolis (-9.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
My Pick: New England
My Pick w/Spread: Miami
Coin Flip: Miami
Favorite: New England (-10.5)
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Pick: Green Bay
My Pick w/Spread: Green Bay
Coin Flip: Tampa Bay
Favorite: Green Bay (-10.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Pick: Jacksonville
My Pick w/Spread: Jacksonville
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Favorite: Jacksonville (-6.5)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
My Pick: New Orleans
My Pick w/Spread: New Orleans
Coin Flip: Carolina
Favorite: New Orleans (-14.5)
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
My Pick: Seattle
My Pick w/Spread: Detroit
Coin Flip: Detroit
Favorite: Seattle (-10.5)
San Diego Chargers at New York Giants
My Pick: New York
My Pick w/Spread: San Diego
Coin Flip: New York
Favorite: New York (-4.5)
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers
My Pick: Tennessee
My Pick w/Spread: San Francisco
Coin Flip: San Francisco
Favorite: San Francisco (-4.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
My Pick: Philadelphia
My Pick w/Spread: Philadelphia
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Favorite: Philadelphia (-3.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
My Pick: Pittsburgh
My Pick w/Spread: Pittsburgh
Coin Flip: Pittsburgh
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-3.5)
All favorites and spread according to ESPN.
Of the twelve picks, we choose six the same. This should be interesting, but I still think I got this week in the bag. The coin picked Tampa Bay, the only winless team left, as well as Redskins. I think I got this week in the bag.
I'll be comparing my picks against the picks made by the coin flip. I'll be doing this for the next nine weeks of the season. At the end, we'll see who picked better, me or the coin. Man vs Coin.
Though I can not pick through the first eight weeks of the year, I can go back and flip a coin and see if the coin would have picked correctly. I plan to do that in one of the next few blogs. As for now, I got to beat the coin. And here are our picks for the week, week nine.
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
My Pick: Atlanta
My Pick w/Spread: Atlanta
Coin Flip: Redskins
Favorite: Atlanta (-10.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
My Pick: Chicago
My Pick w/Spread: Arizona
Coin Flip: Chicago
Favorite: Chicago (-3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
My Pick: Baltimore
My Pick w/Spread: Baltimore
Coin Flip: Baltimore
Favorite: Baltimore (-2.5)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
My Pick: Indianapolis
My Pick w/Spread: Houston
Coin Flip: Houston
Favorite: Indianapolis (-9.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
My Pick: New England
My Pick w/Spread: Miami
Coin Flip: Miami
Favorite: New England (-10.5)
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Pick: Green Bay
My Pick w/Spread: Green Bay
Coin Flip: Tampa Bay
Favorite: Green Bay (-10.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Pick: Jacksonville
My Pick w/Spread: Jacksonville
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Favorite: Jacksonville (-6.5)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
My Pick: New Orleans
My Pick w/Spread: New Orleans
Coin Flip: Carolina
Favorite: New Orleans (-14.5)
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
My Pick: Seattle
My Pick w/Spread: Detroit
Coin Flip: Detroit
Favorite: Seattle (-10.5)
San Diego Chargers at New York Giants
My Pick: New York
My Pick w/Spread: San Diego
Coin Flip: New York
Favorite: New York (-4.5)
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers
My Pick: Tennessee
My Pick w/Spread: San Francisco
Coin Flip: San Francisco
Favorite: San Francisco (-4.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
My Pick: Philadelphia
My Pick w/Spread: Philadelphia
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Favorite: Philadelphia (-3.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
My Pick: Pittsburgh
My Pick w/Spread: Pittsburgh
Coin Flip: Pittsburgh
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-3.5)
All favorites and spread according to ESPN.
Of the twelve picks, we choose six the same. This should be interesting, but I still think I got this week in the bag. The coin picked Tampa Bay, the only winless team left, as well as Redskins. I think I got this week in the bag.
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